The 30-second brief
Wall St rose 0.7% overnight, pointing to a firmer ASX open. The Aussie is near US70.3c (mixed drivers). BTC is down 1.4% (24h).
What it means: net risk-on for AU today.
Today's moves
The numbers
S&P/ASX 200
8,911.10
▼ -0.6%
Iron ore 62% Fe
101.28
▼ -0.4%
BTC (AUD)
90,898.00
▼ -1.4%
What's coming up
- 18Jun11:30AU Labour Force AU
- 24Jun11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AU
- 1Jul11:30China NBS PMI CN
What we're watching
- RBA cash-rate path — Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
- US Fed path — US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
- Iron ore & China demand — AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
- China property & stimulus — Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
- AU housing cycle — Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
- Yen carry & BoJ — AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk appetite; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
- AI capex cycle — Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
- Global risk regime — VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.
Sources